FX.co ★ Risk appetite will return if US data exceed expectations and if the Fed shifts its stance to dovish

Markets have been paying attention to the Fed meeting, particularly on its outcome, which will be announced today. Aside from that, there will also be economic statistics from the US, which will be decisive.

According to the ADP's latest employment report, the US added 395,000 new jobs in April, up from 455,000 in March. Although this figure is markedly lower than the previous month, it shows a strong employment growth, which is positive for both the US labor market and the economy as a whole. And if over time, the increase in new jobs stays above 300,000, the economy can be considered as already stable.

Another important report is the service PMI from the ISM, which is estimated to show a slight increase in April, up to 58.5 points. That number indicates a positive trend, which confirms the progressing situation in the US labor market.

Meanwhile, business activity is expected to noticeably decrease from 58.0 in March to 54.7 points in April, which is negative. But figures above 50 points indicate an increase in activity, so the value is not that bad, especially amid galloping inflation and the start of a recession, which was indicated by the latest GDP data for the 1st quarter.

Looking forward, the economic data today will be a good signal for the Fed after a 0.50% to 1.00% rate hike. But that is only if the numbers were the same or better than expected.