FX.co ★ EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on March 15th (analysis of morning deals). The US data may be encouraging again

In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.0871 and planned to make decisions on market entry based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The decline occurred, but there was no false breakout, which prevented signals for market entry. Low volatility became the main reason for this market situation. In the second half of the day, the technical picture remained unchanged, and all levels are still relevant.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

In the second half of the day, we have another set of very important statistics from the US, the release of which will surely affect market volatility. Figures on industrial production changes are expected, but special attention should be paid to the Consumer Sentiment Index and the Inflation Expectations Index from the University of Michigan. An increase in these indicators will be direct evidence of concerns about a new inflationary surge in the US, which will lead to further strengthening of the US dollar. Against this background, in the event of a pair's decline, I prefer to act only after the formation of a false breakout around the nearest support at 1.0871. Only this will be a suitable option for purchases, counting on a small correction to around 1.0899. A breakout and renewed upward movement above this range against weak US data will strengthen the pair with a chance to buy and push toward 1.0931, where the moving averages are located. The ultimate target will be a maximum of 1.0963, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a further decline of EUR/USD and a lack of activity around 1.0843 in the second half of the day, pressure on the euro will increase, leading to further decline with the prospect of refreshing 1.0843. I plan to enter the market there only after a false breakout is formed. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0800 with a target of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

Sellers are taking a wait-and-see position ahead of the data. I prefer to act on the rise only after an unsuccessful consolidation above 1.0899. This will be a suitable condition for sales, with the prospect of updating 1.0871. A breakout and consolidation below this range, as well as a reverse test from below-up, will give another point for sale with a collapse of the pair to around 1.0843, where buyers will start to act more actively. The ultimate target will be a minimum of 1.0800, where I will take a profit. In the event of an upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0899, buyers will have a chance to compensate for yesterday's decline. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0931. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0963 with a target of a downward correction of 30-35 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 5, there was a decrease in both long and short positions. The results of the European Central Bank meeting did not come as a surprise to traders, nor did the data on the US labor market. Against this background, buyers of risky assets have every chance of further growth. However, much will depend on the market reaction to inflation data in the eurozone and the US, which is expected soon. A decrease in inflation in the US is a direct path for the European currency to reach new monthly highs. The COT report states that long non-commercial positions fell by 5,209 to 200,025, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 8,666 to 133,714. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,920.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a further decline of the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In cases of decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0871 will act as support.

Description of indicators:

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.
• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.