FX.co ★ Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounds in February, Signals Economic Growth

The United States economy appears to be gaining momentum as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) climbs into positive territory for the first time this year. The index, a broad measure of economic activity and inflationary pressure, posted a rise to 0.18 in February 2025. This marks a notable shift from the previous month's figure of -0.08, recorded in January 2025.

Released on March 24, 2025, this change in the CFNAI suggests a rebound in economic conditions across multiple sectors. The shift from a negative to a positive value highlights an increase in activity levels relative to historical trend growth, indicating that the economy is expanding rather than slowing down. The CFNAI is composed of 85 economic indicators from four broad categories: production and income, employment, unemployment and hours, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders, and inventories.

With this upswing, economic analysts and policymakers will be keen to monitor whether the positive trajectory continues in coming months amidst broader economic conditions, both domestically and internationally. As a strong indicator of overall economic health, the CFNAI's performance will play a critical role in shaping economic expectations and policy decisions moving forward.