FX.co ★ Bosmen | AUD/USD

The market's broader trend on the H1 timeframe shows a recovery from the lows near 0.6460. After an extended bearish phase, the pair has begun forming higher lows and higher highs, suggesting a shift in sentiment toward bullishness. However, the price is still consolidating within a range, with the 0.6535 level acting as a resistance zone. The red line, which appears to represent a moving average (likely a 50-period simple or exponential moving average), indicates that the market sentiment is gradually turning positive. The price has recently broken above the moving average, and this line is now serving as a potential dynamic support, reinforcing the upward momentum. Support and Resistance Levels: 1. Immediate Support: The nearest support lies at 0.6510, a level that coincides with the moving average. A break below this level would signal weakening bullish momentum, possibly leading to a retest of the 0.6485 zone. 2. Immediate Resistance: The 0.6535 level represents the first line of resistance. This level aligns with previous highs where the price was rejected during the recovery attempt. 3. Major Resistance: If the price breaks above 0.6535, the next significant resistance level is around 0.6560-0.6570, where previous consolidation occurred. 4. Major Support: On the downside, 0.6460 is a critical support level, as it marked the recent swing low and could act as a demand zone. RSI Indicator Analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a 14-period setting currently reads 56.00, reflecting a neutral to slightly bullish momentum. The RSI is above the 50 level, suggesting buyers are gaining control. However, it has not yet entered overbought territory (above 70), leaving room for further upward movement before a potential correction occurs. If the RSI continues rising, it would confirm strengthening bullish momentum. Conversely, a drop below 50 could indicate a resumption of bearish pressure. Volume Analysis: Volume patterns suggest moderate participation during the recent price recovery. However, a lack of significant spikes in volume indicates that the current bullish move might lack strong conviction. Traders should watch for increased volume during key breakout attempts, especially above 0.6535, to confirm the strength of the move. Key Technical Patterns: The price structure hints at a potential bullish continuation pattern, as the pair forms a series of higher lows. Additionally, the break above the moving average provides further confirmation of the shift in market sentiment. However, failure to break above 0.6535 could lead to a range-bound market or a reversal. Moving Average Dynamics: The moving average (red line) is acting as a dynamic support level. Its upward slope reinforces the current bullish sentiment. If the price remains above the moving average, it is likely to continue climbing toward the next resistance levels. Conclusion: The AUD/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, with the price holding above key support levels and moving average support. The current bullish momentum will be confirmed if the price breaks above the 0.6535 resistance level, potentially targeting 0.6560 or higher. On the downside, a break below 0.6510 could signal a reversal or a deeper correction toward 0.6485 or even 0.6460. Traders should keep an eye on the RSI for further confirmation of momentum and watch for volume spikes during key breakout attempts. Combining this technical analysis with fundamental factors, such as changes in Australian or U.S. economic data, will provide a clearer direction for the pair in the near term.