FX.co ★ Skull999 | EUR/USD

EURUSD Daily Forecast The EUR/USD pair has recently undergone a consolidation phase and is trading in a relatively narrow range between 1.1275 and 1.1410. This comes after an aggressive rally that pushed the currency pair to a three-year high of 1.1473. Despite the previous upward trend, the price action has recently lost momentum, indicating that buyers are either trying to push prices higher or are encountering resistance. The price momentum is decreasing and the currency pair is stuck in a horizontal channel, indicating indecision in the market. Although the bulls are putting heavy pressure on the pair, the lack of consistent gains over the past few trading days has raised doubts about the strength of the current uptrend. Technically, signs of a slowdown in the uptrend are becoming increasingly evident. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is horizontally above the 50 line on the 4-hour chart, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment from neutral. While the RSI is still in the bullish zone, the absence of any upward trend suggests that we are currently in a consolidation phase. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator paints a more cautious picture with the MACD line remaining below the signal line. Although this bearish crossover is above the zero line, the current bullishness means that it does not have the strength to break further. In addition to the technical background, the currency pair is trading slightly above the 20-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart and is currently hovering around the 1.1350 level. This movement acts as a short-term dynamic support. As long as prices remain above this level, upward pressure could increase again. A clear break above the upper boundary of the consolidation zone at 1.1410 could trigger renewed buying interest and lead to a retest of the multi-year high at 1.1473. A break above the resistance area could not only resume the overall uptrend but also lay the foundation for a longer-term uptrend. On the other hand, if the downtrend strengthens again and the price fails to hold the 1.1350 level, a major decline could be inevitable. The 1.1275 level is a key support area that has proven to be important in the past. A break below this level could indicate a short-term change in market sentiment, which could lead to further losses. If the pair breaks the 1.1275 level, the next downside targets appear near 1.1200 and slightly above the 50-period simple moving average near the 1.1215 support area. This area consists of horizontal, moving support levels, which indicate that significant buying interest could arise if the price reaches this level. Essentially, the current pause in the EUR/USD uptrend is due to a lack of profit-taking and fresh momentum to support the uptrend. Investors are awaiting more macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and the United States to decide on a new direction. Economic indicators, central bank policy signals, and geopolitical events are all variables that could influence the next big move in the currency pair. Until then, the sideways consolidation phase is likely to continue and the currency pair will remain within the defined range of 1.1275 - 1.1410. Overall, markets remain cautiously bullish on the euro, partly due to expectations of further normalization of monetary policy by the European Central Bank. But the US dollar also strengthened as the US economy remained relatively strong and the Federal Reserve had room to tighten monetary policy for an extended period. This underlying push and pull has been the driving force behind the recent volatility in the EURUSD pair. Overall, the EUR/USD pair showed a strong and aggressive rise at the beginning of the week, but later price consolidation and technical indicators point to a possible recovery in the near term. Holding key technical levels such as the 1.1350 and 1.1275 support areas will be crucial in determining the next trend. If these levels hold, the bulls may again try to attack the resistance levels at 1.1410 and 1.1473. Conversely, a break of the support line could indicate that the uptrend is at least complete.