FX.co ★ Skull999 | USD/CHF

USDCHF Daily Forecast The USDCHF pair is showing moderate strength today, holding above the 0.8148 level and trying to cautiously recover from the recent sharp decline. The currency pair is trading slightly above its 14-year low of 0.8098 recorded a few days ago, but overall sentiment is bearish. The dollar faces significant challenges as global trade tensions escalate. US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements have significantly reduced risk appetite, driving investors away from traditional safe havens such as the Swiss franc and the US dollar. Despite aggressive monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank, including cutting interest rates to crisis levels, the Swiss franc continued to strengthen, highlighting investors’ deep concerns about the current situation. As a result, the broader economic environment has created ideal conditions for USD/CHF, with prices down nearly 8% since the recent announcement of bilateral tariffs. This was the biggest decline in many years and reflects the weakness of the dollar in volatile times and the Swiss franc’s continued role as a safe haven during economic and geopolitical storms. Efforts by the Swiss National Bank to contain the franc’s strength helped cushion the blow, but failed to reverse the trend. This is due to a major shift in global capital flows towards riskier currencies. Technically, the picture remains very bearish, with momentum indicators continuing to point to weak downward pressure. The Average Directional Index (ADX), widely considered a trend strength indicator, is bullish and is currently in its strongest bearish position since the USD/CHF rally from December 2023 to April 2024. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near multi-month lows, clearly visible from the 20-level 4 seen in August. The market stochastic indicator, which is commonly used to identify changes in price momentum, has been in the oversold zone for several sessions, indicating that the current move is likely to continue in the long term. But interestingly, the stochastic indicator now looks set to challenge the moving averages. This could signal an upcoming bullish crossover and a potential price increase in the short term. From a price perspective, bears will try to push the USD/CHF pair below the psychologically important level at 0.8209. This level corresponds to the low recorded on January 16, 2015. This level has acted as a key support level in the past, and a decisive break below it could lead to new selling pressure. The next logical downside target would be the 14-year low at 0.8098. If it fails, a sharp decline to the 0.286 level could occur, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the uptrend from September 6, 2024 to January 13, 2025. This decline is not just a technical glitch. It reflects the market’s growing concerns about the weak dollar and global financial instability. Meanwhile, the bulls have not yet completely surrendered and are looking for signs of consolidation that could lead to a larger pullback. If a reversal is imminent, attention could immediately shift to the 0.8332-0.8373 range. This range is formed by the lows of December 28, 2023 and September 6, 2024. A recovery from this range would be the first step towards reversing the overall downtrend. Therefore, we can target the move towards the low of October 27, 2011, July 27, 2023 and the most reliable 78.6% Fibonacci extension level in the 0.8550-0.8570 range. A sustained rise above this level would require a major shift in market dynamics, such as a reduction in geopolitical tensions or a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve. At this point, both seem inevitable. Finally, the USDCHF pair is entering a critical phase after a strong sell-off in recent weeks. The currency pair is trying to regain its footing from its all-time low, and technical indicators continue to signal a strong bearish bias. However, the presence of oversold conditions and the possibility of further strengthening stochastic momentum could give bulls hope for a near-term recovery.