FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

From my observation of the EURUSD H1 chart, the pair showed significant intraweek volatility but ultimately closed the week unchanged at 1.0826, where it began. I note that Trump’s tariffs on European goods caused only minor market reactions so far, but I believe the upcoming week could bring more substantial moves due to key U.S. economic data, particularly the NFP, which is expected to be negative. In contrast, European data appears neutral, so I think the market’s focus will remain on Trump’s tariff decisions. While the pair struggled to break out last week, I see potential for movement depending on how these fundamental factors unfold. When I analyze the weekly chart, I notice that the pair formed a pinbar with a lower shadow, suggesting bullish rejection at current levels. The price is currently at 1.0826, well above the moving average at 1.0505, which I interpret as a bullish signal. I expect buyers to remain in control as long as the pair holds above 1.0800. However, I acknowledge the possibility of another corrective decline before upward momentum resumes. The stochastic indicator, though neutral, still hints at upside potential, reinforcing my view that a breakout above 1.0956 could lead to a push toward 1.1212. My longer-term target remains 1.1853, aligned with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. That said, I remain cautious because a drop below 1.0800 could shift sentiment bearishly, potentially driving the pair down to 1.0700. Without stronger catalysts weakening the USD, I cannot rule out a reversal, so I will closely monitor price action around these key levels.

For the upcoming week, I plan to focus on the 1.0800-1.0860 range as a critical zone for determining direction. If buyers defend 1.0800 and push above 1.0860, I will consider entering long positions targeting 1.0950 and beyond. However, I recognize that sustained upward movement requires additional bearish pressure on the USD, which may depend on disappointing U.S. data or escalating trade tensions. Since the current fundamental backdrop lacks clear USD-negative catalysts, I remain open to both bullish and bearish scenarios. In my view, the technical structure favors buyers, but I must remain flexible. A break below 1.0800 would invalidate my bullish bias, prompting me to look for short opportunities toward 1.0700. Until then, I will watch for confirmation of strength above 1.0860 before committing to longs. I also keep in mind that the market’s reaction to upcoming news could override technical signals, so I will adjust my approach accordingly. Overall, while I lean bullish, I am prepared for either direction and will prioritize risk management in my trades.