FX.co ★ FurqanAliShakir | XAU/USD, GOLD

XAU/USD Analysis

Based on the ICT analysis, here’s a potential trade setup: Bullish Setup (Buy) Rationale: The price has swept liquidity at 2,960.000 (LQDT) and is now showing signs of a bullish reversal. The market structure is shifting back to bullish, and the price is likely targeting the IDMT at 3,040.000. Entry: Look for a pullback to a bullish order block or fair value gap in the 2,980.000–2,990.000 range. This could be a high-probability entry point. Alternatively, enter on a break and retest of the 3,000.000 level (a psychological level and recent resistance) to confirm bullish momentum. Stop Loss: Place the stop loss below the LQDT level at 2,960.000, ideally around 2,955.000, to account for potential wicks. Take Profit: Target the IDMT level at 3,040.000, where sell-side liquidity (stops above previous highs) is likely to be taken. A secondary target could be the high at 3,120.000 if momentum continues. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Entry at 2,990.000, stop loss at 2,955.000 (35 points risk), and take profit at 3,040.000 (50 points reward) gives a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.4. If targeting 3,120.000, the ratio improves to 1:3.7. Bearish Setup (Sell) Rationale: If the price fails to break above 3,000.000 and shows rejection (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern), it could indicate a failed bullish reversal, and the price might retest the LQDT at 2,960.000 or lower. Entry: Enter on a rejection at 3,000.000 or a break below 2,990.000 with confirmation (e.g., a bearish order block or candlestick pattern). Stop Loss: Place the stop loss above 3,000.000, around 3,005.000, to account for potential wicks. Take Profit: Target the LQDT at 2,960.000 or lower if the bearish momentum continues. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Entry at 2,995.000, stop loss at 3,005.000 (10 points risk), and take profit at 2,960.000 (35 points reward) gives a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5. Confirmation: Look for additional confirmation signals, such as a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing or pin bar) at the order block for a buy, or a bearish pattern at 3,000.000 for a sell. Economic Events: Gold prices are sensitive to U.S. dollar strength, interest rates, and geopolitical events. Since I don’t have access to real-time data for April 2025, I recommend checking for any major economic releases (e.g., U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, FOMC statements) that could impact XAU/USD. Summary The chart suggests a potential bullish reversal after a liquidity sweep at 2,960.000, with the price likely targeting the IDMT at 3,040.000. A high-probability buy setup could be taken on a pullback to 2,980.000–2,990.000 or a break above 3,000.000, with a stop loss below 2,960.000. Alternatively, if the price rejects 3,000.000, a bearish setup targeting 2,960.000 could be considered. Always use proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.