FX.co ★ IMF revises up China’s growth forecast for 2023

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points in 2023. Now the organization expects the Chinese economy to expand by 5.4% this year.

From October 26 to November 7, an IMF team visited China to discuss current economic problems with senior officials from the Chinese government, private sector representatives, and scientists. They exchanged views on prospects for the world's second-biggest economy, associated risks, and potential reforms.

The parties agreed that China’s gross domestic product would probably exceed the government's growth target of 5% by the end of 2023, reflecting a strong recovery in production after prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns across the country.

However, the outlook for the next year is not so rosy. The IMF estimates that China’s economic growth will slow to 4.6% amid a ballooning debt crisis in the property market and tepid external demand for Chinese products.

Earlier, the General Administration of Customs reported that China’s foreign trade volume fell by 2.5% from a year earlier and by 6% since the beginning of 2023. The foreign trade value dropped to $493.1 billion. In the first ten months of 2023, exports from China shrank by 5.6% to $2.79 trillion, and imports decreased by 6.5% to $2.1 trillion.