FX.co ★ Inflation growth to hardly lose momentum

Recently, most forecasts have been downwardly revised. However, there is one exception. Thus, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its earlier inflation outlook.

In most cases, an upward revision is a positive factor, but in the case of inflation, the situation is the opposite. “The IMF boosted its projection for the pace of consumer price increases across the world to 5.8% for next year in its World Economic Outlook, up from 5.2% seen three months ago,” Bloomberg reads. “In most countries, the IMF, an institution charged with monitoring the health of the global economy, foresees inflation remaining above central bank targets until 2025.” Analysts warned that in the medium term, this factor may weaken the already low pace of global GDP growth. The IMF predicts a 2.9% rise in the global economy in 2024, compared to a 3% increase expected earlier.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, called on the monetary authorities of various countries to stick to their current stance. “Monetary policy needs to remain tight in most places until inflation is durably coming down towards targets,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. “We’re not quite there.”