FX.co ★ World’s top banks downgrade China’s GDP forecasts

Reputable Western financial institutions are on the same page when it comes to forecasts of China’s economy. All forecasts are negative. Lately, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for China’s economic growth. The World Bank quickly followed suit. Its analysts do not foresee positive prospects for the second-largest economy in the coming year.

The World Bank unveiled its worst forecast for China’s GDP over the last five decades. Like other lending institutions, the bank also cut its forecast of China’s economic growth in 2024. According to the latest estimates provided on the official website, China’s national economic output is expected to rise by 4.4% next year. Besides, the economic output of emerging markets in East Asia and the Pacific region, including China, is likely to expand by 4.5%.

This downward revision by the World Bank is significant. Back in April, the lending institution predicted economic growth both in China and the whole region at 4.8%. “The region, one of the main engines of global economic growth, will have to deal with its slowest growth rate since the late 1960s, barring periods of emergency such as the coronavirus pandemic, the Asian financial crisis, and the oil crisis in the 1970s,” the bank’s experts comment on their red-hot forecast. “The region's economic slowdown is linked to domestic challenges in China such as rising debt, real estate problems, and an aging population. External jitters include other countries' trade policies toward Beijing and mounting geopolitical tensions,” the updated forecast reads.