Forecasts for global commodity markets often take investors off-guard. At the same time, they give food for thought. Analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict that OPEC and Russia will make up roughly 50% of the global oil market in the not-too-distant future.
Remarkably, Russia and the cartel of major oil exporters could grab half of the global market by 2050. Russia alongside OPEC members are expected to ramp up their supplies in the coming years. Their overall share is likely to exceed 50% by 2050.
This forecast was posted on the Agency’s website in its annual World Energy Outlook for 2023. The scenario is based on the prediction that the countries beaten by sanctions such as Iran and Venezuela will step up their oil output and flood the global market.
Speaking about the US, its shale oil production stood up at 7.5 million barrels per day in 2022. According to flash estimates, the output will increase by 2 million barrels per day by 2030 and contract to 8.5 million bpd by 2050. The EIA anticipates that Brazil and Guyana will contribute greatly to satisfying global oil demand.
The joint share of OPEC and Russia in the global oil market will vary from 45-48% until 2030, but their overall exports will top 50% by 2050 on the back of expanding output by Saudi Arabia, EIA experts note.
Having analyzed ongoing energy policies of countries worldwide, the agency reckons that global demand for crude oil will measure 102 million bpd by the late 2020s. However, demand will shrink to 97 million bpd by 2050 due to waning demand in the transport industry, including the aviation business.
The World Energy Outlook 2023 reads that oil demand has been steadily on the rise this year, having reached its peak in June. Voluntary oil output cuts agreed by OPEC and its allies offset robust oil production beyond the cartel in the first half of 2023. EIA analysts foresee a moderate increase in supplies from non-OPEC countries until the year-end.