European Commission forecasts stable gas prices for 2023

In a recent update, the European Commission (EC) suggests that gas prices will remain low this year. The gas price forecast for 2023 has been upwardly revised to €42.8 per megawatt-hour from the previously expected €48. The risk of elevated energy prices remains low this year as energy-intensive industries and households have adjusted their consumption patterns to make it more efficient. A relatively mild winter season will also mean that gas and electricity prices are unlikely to spike. Spot prices in the second quarter of this year were lower than expected: they fell by 11% for electricity and by 15% for gas, according to the index of the largest European hub, TTF. So, in the third quarter, the market expects prices to go even lower: down by 21% for gas and 25% for electricity. Moreover, the 2024 gas price prediction has been slightly adjusted to €54.4 per megawatt-hour from the previous estimate of €55.4. Remarkably, in 2022, the price was €131.9 per megawatt-hour. One significant factor influencing these optimistic forecasts is the considerable expansion of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure and a more diversified supply chain. Additionally, gas storage across EU countries is nearly full, providing a supply cushion ahead of colder months. While gas prices may be looking good, the EC's oil price forecast for 2023 has been raised to $81.8 per barrel from $76.3. For 2024, analysts expect it to be $81.2, up from a recent forecast of $72.1. The Commission's major concern right now revolves around the uncertainties of fuel supplies from Russia. The ongoing anti-Russian sanctions, OPEC+ supply cuts, and a slowdown in China's economic recovery are all adding to the complexities of the energy market's future.