FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

The situation with GOLD remains very interesting. Of course, I would like to point out that we are still in an upward movement as the main one, but there are no targets above. Today we had the opportunity to move in both directions, but we have not yet dropped below 3260, where we have a support area and corresponding targets. Prior to that, we went above 3366, but failed to hold above that level, resulting in a false breakout. Additionally, we immediately fell, established a short position initiative, and formed a support area. Currently, we are either growing again or experiencing a pullback, all within the range, but the daily charts do not look as promising. Although for now, I am still bearish. I will focus on the short position initiative and the false breakout. Therefore, if we break above 3344, I will consider selling with a clear stop loss. I believe the current movement in GOLD reflects a cautious market sentiment, caught between conflicting geopolitical signals and technical indecision. I observe that the price is struggling to establish a clear directional bias, oscillating within a tight range between 3358 and 3314 on H1 charts. While the recent upward breakout from the triangle formation suggested bullish potential, I find the lack of follow-through concerning, especially as the price tests minor benchmarks like 3336 with minimal conviction. I note that the absence of a meaningful correction in the US dollar adds complexity, as sustained dollar weakness could theoretically support gold, yet the metal’s inability to capitalize on this dynamic hints at underlying hesitation. I remain cautious about initiating trades here, as the technical setup lacks reliability, and the market seems to be awaiting clearer catalysts.

I interpret the geopolitical dynamics between the US and China, amplified by figures like Bessent and Trump, as a calculated dance of rhetoric aimed at manipulating market expectations. I see Bessent’s recent negativity on US-China trade relations as part of a broader strategy, possibly setting the stage for Trump to pivot with a “positive” announcement, such as a breakthrough in negotiations, to bolster his political image. I view India’s role in this narrative as intriguing, given its simultaneous trade discussions with both the US and the UK, which could position it as a diplomatic wildcard. If gold consolidates above 3358, I anticipate a bullish push toward 3422, fueled by safe-haven demand and renewed dollar skepticism. Conversely, a rejection at 3358 would likely trigger a retest of 3314, with a breakdown below 3300 opening the door to deeper declines toward 3215. I acknowledge that the Asia session’s reaction to Bessent’s statements and China’s response will be critical in shaping short-term momentum. For now, I prefer staying sidelined, monitoring Europe’s open for clearer signals, as the market’s murky behavior demands patience rather than impulsive action.