FX.co ★ Canada Small Business Optimism Hits Record Low

In March 2025, the long-term index of Canada's CFIB Business Barometer, which assesses business performance expectations over the next 12 months, experienced a dramatic drop of 24.8 points, reaching a historical low of 25.0. This plunge surpasses the downturns observed during significant economic crises such as the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial meltdown, and the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Representing the most substantial monthly decrease since the index was established in 2000, this fall underscores the growing adverse effects of tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and potential additional trade restrictions, all of which have significantly eroded business confidence. Notably, full-time staffing plans have shifted negatively, indicating that more firms are planning layoffs instead of hiring. At the same time, the anticipated average price increase for the coming year has risen more steeply than at any time since the pandemic. Additionally, the short-term optimism index, which reflects expectations over the next three months, saw a considerable drop of 16.1 points, settling at an alarmingly low level of 31.2.