FX.co ★ Inflation in US like whimsical lady: slows down not as prompt as expected

The latest inflation report in the US revealed an interesting picture! According to estimates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer inflation slackened the pace of growth in September, but the annual CPI turned out to be higher than expected!

The headline CPI was 2.4% year-over-year in September, an uptick from the projected 2.3%. The annual CPI was 2.5% a month ago. The index also exceeded expectations month-on-month, having reached 0.2%, while analysts had expected the rate to inch down to 0.1%.

The core CPI, which excludes such volatile components as food and energy, accelerated from 3.2% in August to 3.3% in September. Meanwhile, the monthly index remained flat at 0.3% as in August, defying the forecasted decline to 0.2%.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of initial unemployment claims unexpectedly surged to 258,000 last week, reaching the highest level since August 2023. Analysts had projected a lower figure of 230,000.

In light of such macroeconomic statistics, the US dollar gained momentum, although immediately after the reports were released, the greenback did not show any significant moves. Currently, the US dollar index is trading around 103 near the mid-August 2024 highs. Following the inflation report, market participants assessed an 80% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.