FX.co ★ Global macro overview for 19/08/2015

Global macro overview for 19/08/2015:

The most important event of the day will be CPI inflation figures release at 12:20 pm GMT and the FOMC meeting minutes release at 6:00 pm GMT. The Consumer Price Index for the month of July is expected to decrease slightly to 0.2% m/m on a monthly basis, but it should increase to 0.2% on year-to-year basis. Any better than expected inflation data today might start another wave of September rate hike speculations as the recent Fed meeting was not followed by a press conference and the statement was rather terse. However, Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen has quite often hinted at the possible rate hike this year as it would enable the US economy to gradually and smoothly return to the path of interest rates normalization without risking any economic turbulence from raising the rates sharply to pre-2008 levels. Nevertheless, please notice that the Fed members' point of view about rising the interest rates might be somewhat outdated now as new economic events took place since the last meeting. The most important would be the yuan depreciation in China and the following risk of creating the yuan a more free-market depended and regulated currency by the People's Bank of China.

The technical situation on the EUR/USD pair is rather stable as the market awaits the Fed minutes release. The immediate support comes at the level of 1.1000 and resistance at the level of 1.1129.