FX.co ★ Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 14, 2014

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a one-week high at 102.55 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 8.7% to 12.9; S&P 500 rose 0.67% to close at 1,946.72 overnight) as expectations of continued ultra-loose monetary policies from major central banks offset weak economic data and ongoing concerns over turbulence in the Middle East and Ukraine. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers and bigger-than-expected 0.4% increase in U.S. June business inventories (versus forecast +0.3%); broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 81.60 versus 81.52 early Wednesday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales and disappointing U.S. July retail sales data (came in flat as the weakest print in six months, versus forecast +0.2%)--reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve won't rush to raise interest rates; lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield last 2.420% versus 2.442% late Tuesday).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is neutral, MACD is still in a bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.95. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.65. The pivot point is at 102.15.

Resistance levels:
102.75
103
103.25

Support levels:
101.95
101.65
101.40