FX.co ★ Fundamental Analysis for January 24, 2012

Amid rumors about Greek debt, there was a meeting of the finance ministers of the eurozone in Brussels on Tuesday.
The impression is that, on the one hand, the time frame is narrowing every day, and that there are many alternatives available, beyond the heated discourse that solve nothing.
Let's see. In less than 60 days, Greece will face a payment of 14.5 billion euros in debt and interest on capital of it. Soon the Greek administration can do without first receiving a loan that enables it to assume such payment.
On the other hand, Europe fully understands that it will be cheaper to let it save Greece go bankrupt, remove it from the eurozone, and jeopardize the political project that represents the euro.
The single currency is not just a means of commercial exchange between the partners in the eurozone, and the same with the rest of the world. It is also a guarantee of union-plus-one that allows Europe to move away from armed conflicts, and defend with logical nuances arising from their different cultures and geographies, interests in common.
Therefore, the strong euro is a good deal for Germany, which exports are dumped largely in the eurozone, and has few problems with the exchange rate, the quality and value added products.
But the euro, which many countries participated in return for being helped by the continent's largest economy, is choking the countries that were unable or unwilling to develop a context of austerity as did the Germans.
The facility that was Greece, for instance, to make money at low cost, protected by the might of Germany, the debt carried by 140% of its GDP to now pay the consequences.
The European Union showed a rather bad example by forgiving 50% of Greece's debt, but as mentioned, it is lesser evil to take in order to avoid a bleak future.
The summit on Tuesday arrives at the wrong time. Ministers were expected to finance only had to pose for the picture, the problem of Greece resolved, and you will find, as has happened in almost all meetings, with a knotted skein difficult to untie.
If the officials, who naturally follow the political orders, agree, and markets believe them, everything will be resolved favorably. Otherwise, markets will take the final declaration of the summit with the same seriousness as the latest announcements from Standard & Poor's.
The future of the euro, not its existence, but its exchange rate against the dollar, is not encouraging. The higher you are experiencing, without sustainable foundation and only supported versions, declarations of good will and null choices can backfire in a matter of hours.
In the short term overbought dominates in all euro crosses, and beyond the maximum that can overcome at some point, is not capable of being kept at current levels for longer period of time.
The situations with currencies pegged to oil.
The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are gaining strength, especially after the announcement of Europe to ban oil imports from Iran, which increased its price suggestively.
Gold also remains at relatively high prices, taking into account the strong downward correction that shook an ounce in recent weeks. And behind the gold is located, each with upward movements, the Australian dollar and to a lower degree, the Swiss franc.