FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is regaining ground after Friday's decline, trading just below the psychological level of 1.1000 amid mixed signals.

The U.S. dollar is struggling to capitalize on its recent rebound from a six-month low. The new week begins with weakness for the greenback, as market participants remain concerned about a potential recession in the U.S. economy—one that could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle earlier and more aggressively than previously anticipated.

In fact, markets are currently pricing in the possibility of four quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed in 2025. This, combined with global demand for safe-haven assets, is putting downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn supports the EUR/USD pair.

Nevertheless, traders should be cautious about entering aggressive long positions, due to the risks associated with an escalating trade war between the U.S. and the European Union. The EU is facing 25% import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, as well as mutual tariffs on other goods. Moreover, later this Monday evening, the European Commission is expected to propose additional tariffs on U.S. goods in response to President Trump's actions. This could strengthen the dollar as a safe-haven asset and limit further gains in EUR/USD.

This week, in the absence of major economic data from the Eurozone, the pair will be influenced primarily by the scheduled U.S. news flow, with focus on trade developments that could significantly impact market sentiment and demand for the U.S. dollar. This creates short-term trading opportunities in the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, resistance for the pair lies at the 1.1000 psychological level, while support is located at the Asian session low around 1.0975. However, with oscillators on the daily chart remaining in positive territory, and the 9-day EMA above the 14-day EMA, bulls are not yet ready to hand over control to the bears in the EUR/USD pair.