FX.co ★ EUR/USD Forecast for March 20, 2025

The Federal Reserve meeting has concluded, and our expectation that economic risks would be highlighted was correct. Both the accompanying statement and Powell's speech emphasized these concerns.

The central bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1.7%, raised the inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%, and increased the unemployment forecast to 4.4%. However, markets, including stocks, did not react negatively. Investors likely anticipated even worse forecasts; in reality, the numbers do not appear bad, and there is no discussion of a recession.

The Fed remains cautious and plans to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year.

On the daily chart, the euro has stayed within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949. The price attempted to break below 1.0882 but was prevented from doing so. Now, we expect the euro to break above 1.0949, which would open the path for further growth towards the target level of 1.1027, set at the low point on September 3, 2024.

The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator appears weak and may reconfigure into another pattern.

On the H4 chart, the price briefly dipped below the 1.0882 support level, while the Marlin oscillator made a false move below the zero line. A break above 1.0949, which coincides with a break above the MACD line, will signal a rally towards 1.1027.