FX.co ★ XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold has halted its upward movement as it attempts to consolidate at new all-time highs around $3,045, with bulls taking a pause ahead of the FOMC meeting results. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged within the 4.25% - 4.50% range, which could have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar's price action and, consequently, on gold. Given expectations that rates will remain unchanged, the focus shifts to the updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference. His remarks may provide clues regarding the future path of rate cuts, influencing the U.S. dollar's trajectory and potentially giving gold a new directional impulse.

If the Federal Reserve signals a potential rate cut, this could support gold prices at elevated levels, as the precious metal is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty.

However, today's strengthening U.S. dollar may limit gold's upward potential, especially amid concerns over trade policy and geopolitical tensions.

From a technical perspective, the market is showing signs of overbought conditions, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This may prompt traders to exercise caution, waiting for a consolidation phase or a pullback before opening new long positions.

If a correction occurs, support levels around $3,005–$3,000 could provide buying opportunities, with additional support near $2,980–$2,978. A break below these levels could trigger further declines toward $2,956 and even $2,930, before gold potentially retests the $2,900 level, which marked last week's swing lows.