FX.co ★ EUR/USD Forecast for March 18, 2025

The extended Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy is approaching, so we cannot yet conclude that yesterday's 0.64% rise in the S&P 500, the 0.32% drop in the dollar index, and the slight increase in U.S. government bond yields indicate a renewed risk appetite in the markets. In the case of the euro, its recent gains seem to be an adjustment within the 1.0882-1.0949 range as the market prepares for the FOMC decision.

In recent years, markets have generally avoided making impulsive moves immediately after the Fed's announcements. However, the current situation is unique. Given that the euro has risen by 5.5 figures in just one week, big players might be tempted to push the price down to the 1.0762 support level before resuming its upward trend. Within the Fed, there is increasing sentiment that the pace of rate cuts could be accelerated.

On the four-hour chart, market sentiment appears moderately optimistic. The Marlin oscillator has just entered positive territory, and price movements within the 1.0882-1.0949 range are supported by the MACD line. Any movement outside this range could result in a false breakout. For now, we await the Fed's decision.