FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to be on the defensive against the U.S. dollar, as global risk sentiment improves following new stimulus measures announced by China over the weekend. This has weakened demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen. However, rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are preventing bears from taking aggressive action.

Persistent concerns over the potential economic impact of tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, along with geopolitical risks, are also helping to limit further losses for the yen.

This week, caution is advised ahead of key economic events, including the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. These factors introduce uncertainty regarding the continuation of the recent USD/JPY recovery from its multi-month low.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, failed attempts to break above 149.00 and negative oscillators on the daily chart maintain a bearish outlook. However, if the pair manages to overcome this level and break last week's high near 149.20, it could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing USD/JPY toward the psychological level of 150.00, with further upward potential to the 150.60–150.70 zone, and ultimately toward the monthly high near 151.30.

On the other hand, 148.25 could act as initial support before a decline toward the 148.00 mark. A break below 147.70 could make the pair vulnerable to further losses toward 147.00, potentially leading to an extended decline toward the 146.50 level or the monthly low. A break below this level would serve as a bearish signal, opening the door to further downside, especially given the negative readings on daily oscillators.