FX.co ★ XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues its sideways movement, remaining in a consolidation phase as traders await U.S. consumer inflation data, set to be released later today during the North American session. This report could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's future policy and, consequently, on dollar demand. If inflation exceeds expectations, it could provide a fresh bullish impulse for XAU/USD.

The U.S. dollar index has temporarily stabilized ahead of the key economic release, while broader sentiment in global equity markets has also influenced gold's price action. A positive shift in stock markets is pressuring gold, yet ongoing concerns about tariffs and their impact on the global economy continue to support its safe-haven appeal. Additionally, expectations of Fed rate cuts are helping keep gold near elevated levels.

Technical Outlook:

For bulls, a breakout above $2928–2930 is needed to confirm further upside. If this occurs, gold could retest its all-time high around $2956, reached in February. A sustained move above this level would trigger further buying momentum, especially as positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest the continuation of the uptrend.

On the other hand, a decline below the psychological level of $2900 could lead to initial support around $2880 or last week's low. A break below $2855 could trigger a deeper sell-off toward the $2834–2832 area, with the worst-case scenario being a drop toward the key $2800 level.