FX.co ★ USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to experience modest intraday losses against the U.S. dollar, following cautious comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the decline remains limited, as expectations grow that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue tightening its monetary policy.

Recent statements from senior BoJ officials indicate a firm commitment to interest rate hikes, which could narrow the rate differential between the BoJ and major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. This provides support for the yen, preventing a steeper decline.

Nevertheless, the muted performance of the U.S. dollar is preventing USD/JPY from capitalizing on its recent rebound from levels below 151.00, the lowest since December 10. Traders remain cautious, awaiting the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to influence market direction.

A break below 152.60, where the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) converge, has become a key bearish signal. Oscillators on the daily chart remain deep in negative territory, suggesting further downward potential. Any upward movement may be seen as a selling opportunity, with resistance expected near the psychological level of 152.00. If the price continues to rise, the next key resistance is 152.60, followed by the round level of 153.00.

On the other hand, the 151.00 now serves as immediate support. A break below 151.00 could lead to further declines toward 150.55–150.50 and then the critical psychological level of 150.00. If the price drops below 150.00, further downside is likely toward 149.60, before potentially testing 149.00 and the December low near 148.65.