FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on December 12, 2024

On Wednesday, the euro declined slightly further, approaching the lower boundary of the 1.0461–1.0598 range. The Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe has reached the neutral zero line, signaling that the euro is prepared for the European Central Bank meeting results.

The market has fully priced in today's anticipated 0.25% rate cut, and Christine Lagarde is unlikely to announce anything groundbreaking. Even the Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 0.25% in December and pause in January (with a 75.4% probability of no rate cut). Given this, the overall market sentiment favors the dollar, considering the economic balance between the regions. Geopolitical factors also support the dollar.

From a technical perspective, a break below the 1.0461 support level as an initial reaction to the ECB's decision would pave the way for a test of the 1.0350 support level, with a secondary target at 1.0250.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator continues to develop in bearish territory. Based on both timeframes, the current trend remains downward. Reversing this trend would require an extraordinary event.