FX.co ★ AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/USD pair reached a new yearly low, aligning with the November 2023 low, and remains under pressure from several factors.

Analysis:

The fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains downward, although bearish traders may wait for the release of U.S. consumer inflation data before opening new positions.

The CPI report (Consumer Price Index), a critical indicator for forecasting U.S. interest rates, will serve as a key reference for the Federal Reserve in determining borrowing costs at next week's policy meeting. These developments will play a pivotal role in shaping the short-term price dynamics of the U.S. dollar, potentially giving the AUD/USD pair a new directional push. At the same time, growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious stance on rate cuts supports the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Moreover, ongoing geopolitical risks are pushing the dollar to weekly highs, further pressuring the currency pair.

On the other other hand, the Australian dollar remains under pressure due to the dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In its monetary policy statement released on Tuesday, the RBA expressed confidence that inflation is moving toward the annual target range of 2%-3%. Additionally, the central bank removed its previous notion that policy must remain restrictive, reinforcing expectations of an earlier rate cut.

Concerns over fragile economic recovery in China and fears of a potential trade war between China and the U.S. also weigh heavily on the outlook for the AUD/USD pair.

The above-mentioned fundamentals suggest that the immediate market reaction to weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI data is likely to remain muted. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are deeply in negative territory and far from oversold levels.

Thus, any attempts by the AUD/USD pair to recover may be viewed as selling opportunities, with a high likelihood of quickly losing momentum.