FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2024

Investors' gradual shift away from risk continues. Yesterday, the U.S. stock index S&P 500 fell by 0.30%, and the euro followed suit, losing 24 pips, albeit within the context of anticipation for the European Central Bank meeting.

The November U.S. CPI report will be released today. The Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3% YoY, while the headline CPI may increase from 2.6% YoY to 2.7% YoY.

Considering the slightly hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials over the past 1.5 weeks, the most likely scenario for the euro leading up to the ECB meeting is a decline toward the lower boundary of the 1.0461–1.0598 range.

Furthermore, the widely discussed 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB has already been fully priced in, as evidenced by the euro's 4.5-figure decline since November 16. The market is now entirely focused on the Fed's actions and crisis-driven correlations.

On the 4-hour chart, yesterday's decline was halted by the MACD Line and the balance line. The Marlin oscillator remains on a downward trajectory. Today, the price may attempt to break below these indicator supports and consolidate beneath them.