FX.co ★ AU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold continues its negative trend for the second consecutive day, trading slightly above the weekly low.

Increasing anticipation that the expansionist policies of US President-elect Donald Trump will reignite inflation, thereby limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to further reduce interest rates, is driving a new surge in US Treasury yields. This, in turn, strengthens demand for the US dollar—a key factor suppressing interest in gold.

Additionally, optimism regarding the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary (if confirmed) and the possibility of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has resulted in an outflow from gold, which typically serves as a safe-haven asset during crises.

The fundamental backdrop points to a potential continuation of declines in XAU/USD. However, Trump's tariff threats and ongoing geopolitical risks may help limit losses.

Traders should pay attention to today's release of data on new home sales, the consumer confidence index, and the FOMC minutes, which may provide insights into possible rate cuts.

Technical Analysis

On the one hand, the price is expected to encounter resistance around the $2650 level, which corresponds to the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Sustained strength above this level could trigger a rally toward the psychologically significant $2700 level, with the next target being the overnight high in the $2721–2722 zone.

On the other hand, the $2600 psychological level remains a critical support point against further declines. A break below this level would expose the 100-day SMA on the daily chart, currently located near the $2563 level. Additional downward momentum could drag the price toward the monthly swing low around $2536.

A decisive break below this level could serve as a new trigger for bearish sentiment, paving the way for an extended pullback from the all-time high reached in October.