FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on November 25, 2024

On Friday, the euro made a decisive move downward, testing the linear supports on the weekly chart. The Marlin oscillator on the weekly timeframe reached significant support at -0.0450, signaling a potential rebound into a correction.

The target level of 1.0350 was reached on the daily chart, indicated by a long lower shadow suggesting a potential reversal. The price may return to the target range of 1.0590–1.0636. Notably, the levels 1.0777 and 1.0882 align with the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement levels, further reinforcing their importance as potential points of attraction.

However, the expected recovery may not come easily. The opening gap adds complexity to this rise. If this gap is not closed today or tomorrow, the rally will unlikely extend beyond the first target range of 1.0590–1.0636.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating within the range of 1.0449–1.0483, waiting for stronger signals. Since the price failed to break through this range on the first attempt, stopping at the balance line resistance (red moving average), the gap may close according to the usual pattern—on the same day it was formed. From there, the euro will need renewed momentum to overcome the resistance range of 1.0449–1.0483 and the MACD line, which is rapidly approaching this zone.