FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on November 22, 2024

The British pound broke below the 1.2612 support level yesterday, but the Marlin oscillator did not confirm the move. Instead, it reversed and formed a weak convergence with the price.

If the price consolidates above 1.2612, the recent dip below support will be interpreted as a false breakout, serving as an additional signal for a potential upward reversal. The first target for a corrective rise is 1.2708.

If the price moves to test the 1.2510 support, the reversal may be delayed for several days.

The price is moving below the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart. It has settled below the 1.2612 level, and the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory.

However, if the price consolidates above 1.2612, this scenario will become more plausible as the Marlin oscillator already shows signs of an intention to return to positive territory. Afterward, the price may attempt to overcome the MACD line at 1.2675.

The probability of a reversal into a corrective movement is estimated at 65%.