FX.co ★ XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold has attracted buyers for the fourth consecutive day.

The upward trend observed since the start of this week is driven by geopolitical risks, benefiting the safe-haven asset. Additionally, a modest decline in the US dollar provides a tailwind for the commodity.

Expectations surrounding tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump suggest increased inflationary pressure, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates. This has continued to support elevated yields on US Treasury bonds. Combined with a positive risk sentiment, these factors deter traders from taking aggressive bullish positions in the XAU/USD pair.

From a technical standpoint, intraday upward movement encountered resistance around the $2670 level. Sustained buying above this level could push gold towards the $2700 level.

Conversely, the $2640 level now serves as support against an immediate drop before testing the $2600 level. A decisive break below this level could leave gold vulnerable, paving the way to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and subsequently the previous week's swing low around $2536. A move beyond this point would signal a bearish shift, setting the stage for further losses.

However, as daily chart oscillators attempt to move out of negative territory, traders considering short positions should exercise caution.

For trading opportunities, attention should focus on US macroeconomic data, which, along with Federal Reserve speeches, could provide new momentum for the precious metal.