FX.co ★ USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is finding support at its weekly low, halting the pullback from its highest level since May 2020.

However, current prices are struggling to gain significant momentum. Traders anticipating upward movement should remain cautious due to mixed fundamental signals.

According to data released on Tuesday, Canada's annual inflation rate increased more than expected. This caused investors to lower their expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December. Consequently, this event can be viewed as supportive for the Canadian dollar, posing resistance to the USD/CAD pair. However, moderate crude oil prices are restricting significant gains in the oil-linked Canadian dollar.

Recent USD buying is helping to limit a significant decline in the USD/CAD pair. Investors believe the policy of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will spur economic growth. This is expected to reignite inflationary pressures, which would prevent the Federal Reserve from considering rate cuts. In turn, this scenario is likely to fuel another wave of growth in U.S. Treasury bond yields, thereby increasing demand for the U.S. dollar.

To identify new trading opportunities today, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of influential FOMC members, as they will clarify the future path of interest rate policy. These speeches will play a key role in guiding U.S. bond yields and the value of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, traders should monitor the release of official U.S. oil inventory data, which will influence oil prices and create short-term trading opportunities in the USD/CAD pair.

From a technical perspective, technical indicators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, so bulls have no immediate concerns.