FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. PMI Indices, Fed's Verbal Signals, Lagarde's Interview

Last week, the EUR/USD pair dipped into the 1.08 range for the first time since August. EUR/USD bears managed to drive the price down to the lower end of the 1.08 range (with a low recorded at 1.0812) but did not venture into the 1.07 range. Moreover, toward the end of Friday's trading, buyers took the initiative, attempting to regain previous levels, aiming to move back above the 1.0900 target. However, they were unsuccessful—more precisely, they ran out of time.

Thus, the main intrigue for the upcoming week revolves around a simple question: Will sellers be able to solidify their position within the 1.08 range, or will buyers manage to build on their momentum? It should be noted that this is not about a trend reversal—rather, it's about the scale of the correction. The overall fundamental background supports a further decline in price in the medium-term outlook.

The economic calendar for the upcoming week is not packed with significant events for EUR/USD. However, each trading day of the five days holds some interest.

Monday

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting will begin from October 21 to 26. Typically, this event indirectly impacts the dynamics of major currency pairs. However, with a nearly empty economic calendar on Monday, the IMF meeting might draw the market's attention. Participants will be particularly interested in the Fund's forecasts regarding the largest global economies (especially China and the U.S.) and the global economy as a whole. It's worth noting that in September, China announced a package of stimulus measures to revive its economy (the People's Bank of China cut interest rates, eased the burden of mortgage loans, and promised to inject additional funds into the financial system). Meanwhile, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% in the third quarter. The IMF's "verdict" could strengthen or weaken interest in risk assets, with the EUR/USD pair responding accordingly.

Additionally, Monday will feature speeches from representatives of the Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will share their perspectives. Although they do not have voting rights this year, they will gain them through the rotation system next year. Logan's rhetoric could support the greenback. In a speech two weeks ago, she noted that inflation remains subject to "real upward risks," and the economic outlook carries "significant uncertainty." Logan also mentioned that she supports a more moderate pace of rate cuts (in 25-basis-point increments). Kashkari, in turn, recently remarked that the labor market remains strong and that "some progress" has been made in the fight against inflation.

Tuesday

Tuesday will feature speeches from several Fed representatives. We will hear from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (non-voting member this year), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (voting member), and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voting member in 2024). They may comment on the recent inflation reports released in the U.S. two weeks ago (CPI, PPI), which showed a slowdown in overall inflation but an acceleration in core inflation.

Additionally, several European Central Bank (ECB) representatives will speak on this day. Most notably, Francine Lacqua will interview ECB President Christine Lagarde on Bloomberg Television. During this interview, Lagarde may comment on the outcomes of the ECB's October meeting in the context of the central bank's future actions. Lagarde will also speak at the IMF, though this address will not focus on the ECB's monetary policy ("The Future of Cross-Border Payments").

Furthermore, ECB Board Member Joachim Nagel and the ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, will make remarks on Tuesday.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, Fed Board member Michelle Bowman will speak. It's worth noting that she was the only member of the Committee who, in September, voted against a 50-basis-point rate cut. Since that meeting, she has repeatedly expressed concerns about high inflation. On October 23, she will comment for the first time on the September CPI and PPI reports, which, as a reminder, reflected an acceleration in core inflation. If she even hypothetically suggests the possibility of maintaining a wait-and-see stance in November, the dollar could receive strong support. Currently, the likelihood of such a scenario is only 10%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Also, the Consumer Confidence Indicator for the Eurozone will be published on Wednesday. This indicator has been in negative territory for over a year, but it showed positive momentum in September, rising from -13.5 to -12.9. The positive trend is expected to continue in October (forecast at -12.7).

During the U.S. session on Wednesday, we will learn about the September figures for existing home sales in the United States. In August, sales volume decreased by 2.4%, and another decline of 1.2% is expected for September.

Additionally, the Fed's Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. This report, compiled by the 12 Fed Banks, provides an overview of economic conditions across various regions of the United States. While the report is informative, it typically has a limited impact on the market.

Thursday

Thursday is PMI day, a key report, especially for the euro. The results of the ECB's October meeting were mixed. Lagarde neither confirmed nor denied discussions among ECB members about a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, she indicated that the pace and timing of further monetary policy easing would depend on incoming data, with PMI indices playing a crucial role. The September figures were in the "red," significantly influencing the outcome of the last ECB meeting. If October shows a continued downward trend in key indicators, the likelihood of a rate cut in December will increase significantly. Preliminary forecasts suggest minimal growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors. For instance, Germany's manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly from 40.6 to 40.7. The euro could come under pressure if the release disappoints amid such weak forecasts.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI will be released during the U.S. session on Thursday. Forecasts suggest the indicator will remain in contraction territory but show an upward trend, moving from 47.3 to 47.5. The dollar would receive substantial support only if the index, contrary to expectations, crosses the 50-point threshold.

Additionally, several Fed representatives will speak on Thursday. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who holds voting rights this year, will share her views. She was appointed in September of this year, replacing Loretta Mester. It will be interesting to assess her dovish or hawkish stance.

Also, on Thursday, attention should be paid to the trend in initial jobless claims. Over the past two weeks, this indicator has been relatively high (260,000, 241,000), raising legitimate concerns among dollar bulls. Another result above 230,000 could put pressure on the greenback.

Friday

On the last trading day of the week, the main focus for EUR/USD traders will be on the IFO indices. Last month, these indicators disappointed, adding to the pessimism reflected in the PMI figures. A minimal but positive growth is expected in October. For instance, the business climate index in Germany is forecasted to rise from 85.4 to 85.6. This release should be viewed in the context of the October PMIs, which will be published on Thursday. The IFO indices could amplify the impact if they come in weaker or stronger than expected, confirming the PMI trend (which is the critical factor).

The durable goods orders report will be released during the U.S. session. In August, this indicator was flat (excluding transportation; it showed a 0.5% increase). For September, a decline of 1.1% is expected (excluding transportation, a decrease of 0.1%).

Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published on Friday, with a slight increase anticipated—from 68.9 to 69.6.

Conclusions

As we can see, the economic calendar for the upcoming week is not packed with significant events, but the scheduled releases could still trigger volatility in the EUR/USD pair. The key focus will be on the remarks from Fed representatives, who will likely comment on the September inflation reports in the U.S. Lagarde's interview with the chief editor of Bloomberg Television will also be of particular interest. Plus, the PMI indices are noteworthy. All other releases will play a secondary or, rather, a supporting role.

Technically, on the D1 timeframe, the pair is positioned between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator and below all Ichimoku indicator lines, which suggests a preference for short positions. The first target of the downward movement is 1.0810 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on H4). The main target is 1.0780 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart).