FX.co ★ XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

For the third consecutive day, gold attempts to maintain its positive momentum.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue lowering interest rates remain the primary factor driving flows toward the non-interest-bearing yellow metal. Additionally, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is providing further support for gold.

US Treasury yields and the US dollar remain elevated amid expectations of a softer monetary policy approach by the US central bank. At the same time, optimism surrounding China's promise to increase debt to stimulate its economy, along with the positive risk sentiment, could limit any further rise in the price of the precious metal. These factors suggest caution for traders looking to buy gold.

From a technical standpoint, any price decline is likely to find support near the $2,630 level, below which the price could accelerate its fall to the round figure of $2,600. A decisive break below this level would be seen as a new trigger for bears, paving the way for a significant drop. The XAU/USD pair could then slide to the next key support around $2,560, continuing the decline toward $2,533, and eventually aiming for the psychological level of $2,500.

However, positive oscillators on the daily chart favor the bulls. Still, it would be prudent to wait for further buying momentum beyond the horizontal resistance at $2,672–$2,662 before positioning for additional price growth. A subsequent upward move could lift the price to the all-time high reached in September, with the next target being the round figure of $2,700. If this level is decisively breached, it would set the stage for an extension of the well-established multi-month uptrend.