FX.co ★ Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10.10.2024

The dollar continues its triumphant march, even amid talks that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates by fifty basis points again. Today's release of inflation data in the United States fueled these discussions.

The growth rate of consumer prices will likely slow from 2.5% to 2.3%, bringing it closer to the target level of 2.0%. However, despite the confident slowdown in inflation, it is doubtful that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower the refinancing rate by fifty basis points at its next meeting. After all, inflation is just one of the key indicators. Another is the labor market. Based on recent data, unemployment has once again declined, which supports the case for maintaining higher interest rates. It's clear that the U.S. central bank won't tighten its monetary policy further, but a large-scale easing is also not on the table.

Nonetheless, the dollar is overbought, and the market needs at least a local correction. Thus, a slowdown in inflation could be an excellent reason for a correction.