FX.co ★ XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today marks the fourth consecutive day that the yellow metal has been trading within the familiar range maintained over the past week, amidst mixed fundamental signals.

The optimistic U.S. employment report released on Friday shattered market expectations regarding a more aggressive easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This keeps the U.S. dollar near a seven-week high, exerting some pressure on the less favorable yellow metal.

Additionally, the bullish tone in global equity markets further undermines gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, any significant corrective decline, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks stemming from continued conflicts in the Middle East, which would typically benefit precious metals, is not evident.

Therefore, traders should wait for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes this week, which will be published on Wednesday, followed by data on consumer inflation in the U.S. on Thursday.

From a technical standpoint, the price action within this range appears to be a bullish consolidation phase following a recent strong rally to record highs. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain comfortably in positive territory and have exited the overbought zone. This, in turn, indicates that the path of least resistance for the precious metal is upward, supporting the prospects for a breakout. However, it would still be prudent to wait for some subsequent buying above the $2672 level before opening new long positions. After that, the historical high around $2685 and the round level of $2700, if successfully surpassed, would lay the groundwork for extending a well-established multi-month uptrend.

Conversely, the lower boundary of the aforementioned trading range in the $2630-$2623 level will continue to provide immediate support, serving as a key reference point for short-term traders. A convincing break lower would trigger technical selling, dragging the XAU/USD pair below the round level of $2600, towards the next relevant support zone at $2560. A corrective decline could extend to the next support level in the $2532-$2530 level and then to the psychological level of $2500.