FX.co ★ Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 4, 2024

The dollar is on hold in anticipation of the release of the U.S. Department of Labor report. Moreover, there is increasing speculation that the report's content may be slightly better than forecasts. In particular, based on recent labor market data, there are doubts that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. It is more likely to remain at its current level. Furthermore, it appears that 140,000 new jobs will be created outside of agriculture, rather than the previously predicted 130,000. While this number isn't huge, given the population size and growth rate in the U.S., it is still slightly more than initially expected. This could lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, everything will depend on the content of the U.S. Department of Labor report.

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a corrective phase from the resistance level 1.1200. As a result, the price has reached the support level of 1.1000.

In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool is moving in the sellers' zone of 30/50, indicating the appeal of short positions on the euro. However, oversold conditions are already being observed in shorter-term periods.

As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are directed downward, in line with the ongoing corrective cycle.

Expectations and Prospects

Based on the theory of support around the 1.1000 level, the volume of short positions could decline, potentially leading to a price rebound. If the price stabilizes above 1.1050, a clearer signal for increased long positions on the euro may emerge.

However, if the price stabilizes below the 1.1000 level, further declines toward the 1.0900/1.0950 area are possible.

The complex indicator analysis for the short-term period points to a price rebound from the 1.1000 level. For the intraday period, the indicators continue to show a bearish sentiment.