FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on October 3, 2024

Yesterday, the single European currency declined by 22 pips, while the stock market (S&P 500) rose by 0.01%. Overall, stock indices closed mixed, but the VIX index fell by 1.87%, and it still needs to increase by 25.7% to reach its September peak of 23.76. There's no sign of a flight from risk. Even oil prices fell yesterday, and investors were not keen on holding U.S. government bonds in their portfolios.

On the weekly EUR/USD chart, the price has reached strong support — the point where the Kijun-sen line intersects with the 138.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The channels on the Marlin oscillator also create a strong potential reversal point at the intersection of the lower boundaries of both the descending and ascending channels. The divergence formed during the downward movement may reverse.

We also see that the price has not yet tested the 200.0% and 238.2% Fibonacci reaction levels at 1.1230 and 1.1350. There are good prospects for the price to correct this oversight. If the price can overcome the 138.2% retracement level (1.1033 – yesterday's low) and consolidate, the downward trend will continue to strengthen.

On the daily chart, the price is close to consolidating below the Kijun-sen line, which requires today's close to be below this line. Marlin is slightly turning upward in the downtrend territory. Considering the situation on the weekly chart, the main events will likely unfold next week.

The price is declining below the 1.1076 level on the four-hour chart while the oscillator is rising. Today, PMI indices for the Eurozone for September will be released, and the forecasts are negative. This factor is likely to hinder the euro's recovery. Tomorrow, with the release of U.S. employment data (the nonfarm payrolls forecast is 144k compared to 142k in August, which might be exceeded), investor appetite for risk may increase.