FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on September 24, 2024

Yesterday's Eurozone business activity data for September came out pessimistic. The Manufacturing PMI weakened from 45.8 to 44.8, while the Services PMI showed 50.5 compared to 52.9 the previous month. All indices were weaker than forecasts. The market started talking about a weakening economy, lower inflation, and the prospects of a steady monetary policy easing. The euro led the decline, losing 50 pips.

The balance line indicator on the daily time frame is holding back the price drop. The price is attempting to attack the support level at 1.1076. Once this level is breached, the price will have to contend with the support of the MACD line (1.1033). Success in this would mark the beginning of a medium-term decline for the euro, with the first target at 1.0882, approximately at the point of intersection with the embedded line of the price channel.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the balance line. The price must contend with the support level at 1.1078 and the MACD line as it follows the Marlin oscillator. This is strong support, and the price will need help from related markets. So far, oil is declining among these related markets.