FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2024

Yesterday, September 3rd, was quite eventful: The S&P 500 was down 2.12%, oil was down 4.78%, the dollar index was up 0.07%, and the yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds down 2.09% to 3.63%. Given this turn of events, the likelihood of the euro reversing from the support of the embedded green price channel line is very low. We expect the support at 1.1010 to be breached and the target level of 1.0950 to be reached. The Marlin oscillator on the daily time frame has entered the downtrend territory.

In the 4-hour chart, Marlin is rising against the trend of the daily oscillator and has even formed a slight convergence with the price. There are two possible scenarios here: a market reversal pattern or a standard limited rise—a brief release of oscillator tension before further decline. The reversal could occur either at the zero line or slightly above it, forming a false breakout into the positive territory.

However, what interests us most now is the market reversal pattern. According to the CFTC data, the largest euro position of the current year was accumulated last week. A fresh report will be released on Friday. If the big players plan to knock out the rest of the market participants, the timing is perfect.

One of the key upcoming releases is the U.S. labor report for August, due the day after tomorrow. The forecast suggests an increase in new jobs by 160-164,000 compared to 114,000 in July and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2%. Undoubtedly, such data will lower the still-aggressive market expectations regarding the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and this could result in the closure of euro purchases.