FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on August 16, 2024

Yesterday's rise in the USD/JPY pair by 196 pips has removed the possibility of a corrective wedge scenario. This greatly simplifies the practical implications for this pair, as a downward trend is expected after the end of the wedge correction. The target range of 150.83-151.23 seems to be open, but the price has paused at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is close to the zero line.

A reversal could potentially occur from the current levels or after a false breakout above the Fibonacci level. An increase could push the pair above the mentioned target range, up to the 50.0% corrective level, which coincides with the May 3 low of 151.87. A primary consolidation below 148.82 will indicate further movement to 146.50. Only a drop below this level would confirm the conclusion of the correction from August 5.

In the 4-hour chart, the price is striving to maintain its position above the crucial 148.82 level. The Marlin oscillator is also attempting to consolidate in the positive area. However, the upward momentum is waning, and the situation is approaching a potential reversal. A drop below 146.50 would also mean overcoming the MACD line. These signals would confirm the bearish victory.