FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on August 14, 2024

The sharp slowdown in U.S. producer price inflation from 2.7% to 2.2% immediately weakened the dollar. Such data leads the market to anticipate a noticeable drop in inflation, which would guarantee a more substantial Federal Reserve interest rate cut. However, these expectations may not materialize. Producer price data are more of a leading indicator and affect inflation with a delay. Moreover, previous producer price data were revised upward. Therefore, there is a high probability that today's inflation data may show unchanged consumer price growth, which could lead to a sharp reversal.

By piercing the upper boundary, the EUR/USD pair has broken out of the stagnant phase within the 1.0900/1.0950 range. This led to a surge in the volume of long positions on the euro, allowing buyers to fully recover the rate relative to the recent corrective move.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical tool has entered the overbought zone during the bullish momentum, coinciding with the price touching the 1.1000 level.

Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upwards, aligning with the direction of the price movement.

Expectations and Prospects

The price convergence with the level of 1.1000 has once again triggered a decline in long positions, indicating either a stagnation or a reversal. It is worth noting that a repeated touch of the 1.1000 level could also be viewed as traders' high interest in the upward cycle. Thus, stabilizing the price above this level throughout the day could indicate a continuation of the upward trend.

The complex indicator analysis indicates an upward cycle for the short-term and intraday periods.