FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on July 17, 2024

USD/JPY

The two-day correction from the July 15 low when the Bank of Japan carried out an intervention amounted to almost 38.2%. This is enough for the pair to consider ending it and continue the downward movement, as the Marlin oscillator looks firm in the downtrend territory.

But there are two circumstances that prevent a reversal from the current levels: the price intends to climb above the 38.2% retracement level to create a false move and forcefully return under the 23.6% level with a subsequent retracement of the target level of 156.79, and the price also plans to correct higher to the 50.0% level to test the MACD line (159.63) at the same time.

On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is moving into the bullish territory. This is still a sign of a higher rise than before the 38.2% retracement level. The price may reach the MACD line at 159.63, which coincides with the MACD line on the intraday timeframe. If the price can rise to this level, the decline could be even stronger than the false move above the 38.2% retracement level. Finally, if the price continues to fall from the current levels, it will probably take its time to drop to the target level of 156.79.