FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 16th (US session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price of 158.47 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the scenario to sell the dollar. However, as you can see on the chart, a significant downward movement did not happen because there were simply no sellers for the dollar. The pair's further direction will now depend on American statistics. Changes in retail sales volume, the US import price index, and the NAHB housing market index are likely to support the dollar and continue the upward correction, but only if the data exceeds economists' forecasts. Otherwise, pressure on the pair will quickly return. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 158.63 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 159.13 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.13, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). We can count on the pair's growth today, but only after good American statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 158.32 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 158.63 and 159.13.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the level of 158.32 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.86 level, where I will exit sales and open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to rise above the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 158.63 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 158.32 and 157.86.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: The suggested price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: The suggested price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.