FX.co ★ EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 16th (US session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The levels I mentioned in the first half of the day were not tested. Despite weak European indicators, the pair's volatility remained extremely low, so it was not possible to get suitable market entry options. The American session promises to be much more interesting since the retail sales report can stir up the market. Strong data is a reason to buy dollars and sell euros, expecting further correction of the pair. Weak data, along with similar statistics on the import price index and the NAHB housing market index, is a reason to increase euro purchases and sell dollars. However, strong and directed movements today are unlikely. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros upon reaching the price of around 1.0906 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.0930. At the 1.0930 mark, I will exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro can be expected today after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0893 price at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0906 and 1.0930.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell euros after reaching the 1.0893 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0868 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy euros immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to break beyond the daily high and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0906 price at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0893 and 1.0868.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: The suggested price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: The suggested price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.