FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on July 12, 2024

GBP/USD

The British pound welcomed the softer U.S. CPI numbers and the dollar's decline, by sharply rising towards the target level of 1.2975. Here, the bears will have a final chance to intercept the situation on a weak divergence with the Marlin oscillator.

If the price breaks above 1.2975, the oscillator's signal line will be above its peak from May 27-28, eliminating the chances of forming a divergence. This would open up a brilliant prospect for the pound to rise towards the target range of 1.3124/41, determined by the July 2023 peak. The price has about a 40% chance of returning below 1.2847. However, this return would solidify the lower level divergence and realign the pound towards a decline to 1.2633.

On the 4-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is rapidly declining, this shows us the oscillator's discharge before it rises further, pulling the price to the target level of 1.2975. However, if Marlin continues to decline and consolidates in negative territory, it could significantly hinder the upward movement. The MACD line is quickly approaching the 1.2847 level, and consolidation below it and the line will shake the current bullish base.