FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2024

Although 206,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector, significantly exceeding the forecast of 160,000, the overall content of the US Department of Labor report turned out to be simply appalling. This was mostly due to the downward revision of previous data from 272,000 to 218,000. This means that for three consecutive months, fewer than 250,000 new jobs have been created, which is not even enough to maintain labor market stability. Consequently, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. In other words, unemployment has been rising for three consecutive months. This sharply increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which led to the dollar's decline. The issue lies in the extremely weak data, which were significantly worse than expected.

Considering that today's economic calendar is practically empty, the market will be guided by other factors, particularly the dollar's oversold condition. In addition, the results of the early parliamentary elections in France are likely to disappoint the markets. This is not so much due to the defeat of President Macron's party but rather because of the clear victory of parties that the media describe as far-right. From the perspective of leading business publications, which significantly influence the markets, this is a highly negative factor. Therefore, the dollar has a good chance to recover some of its recent losses.

EUR/USD closed the week above the level of 1.0800, which in terms of technical analysis is a sign that the market sentiment is bullish.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI reached the overbought zone and left. Based on the absence of a distinct corrective movement, we can conclude that at this time the market is reassessing long positions on the euro.

On the same chart, the Alligator moving averages are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle.

Outlook

If we focus solely on the technical analysis, keeping the price above the level of 1.0800 may eventually lead to further growth for the euro, on the basis of which it is possible to test the local high of the medium-term trend.

The bearish scenario will come into play in case of a pullback, if the price settles below the level of 1.0800 for at least a 4-hour period.

In terms of complex indicator analysis, the short-term period does not have stable indicators since the price is stagnant. In the daily period, the bullish sentiment is still in force.