FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2024

The dollar continued to lose ground despite the holiday in the United States, although the scale of its decline was quite modest. This appears to be due to the current momentum combined with forecasts regarding the U.S. Department of Labor report. With the unemployment rate remaining unchanged, only 160,000 new jobs are expected to have been created outside the agricultural sector. This is not only significantly less than the 272,000 jobs last month but also noticeably lower than the 250,000 jobs needed to maintain labor market stability. In other words, unemployment in the United States is expected to rise, which in turn is a factor for the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy. Therefore, there are grounds for the dollar to weaken. However, the decline should be minor, given that the greenback has already weakened.

During its upward cycle, EUR/USD surpassed the resistance level of 1.0800, indicating the possibility of rising further.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator shows signs of overbought conditions. The indicator touched the 70 area; however, it is noteworthy that the pair has not reached the critical overbought level.

On the same chart, the Alligator moving averages are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle.

Outlook

Keeping the price above the 1.0800 level by the end of the week could strengthen long positions, making it possible for the euro to stage a complete recovery relative to the decline in June. However, closing the week below the 1.0800 level may slow down the bullish momentum, and as a result, the volume of short positions will increase.

In terms of complex indicator analysis, the short term and intraday periods point to a bullish bias.